This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a lot of money from this week considering it’s a more compact card and begins at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t think there are any cash locks nowadays, so I wanted to bring a cash strategy I use a lot of the time, which is punting in money and accepting a reduction. I don’t believe Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and that I think she receives 15-minutes of action. I like the floor that comes with that and punting along with her cheap price allows us to fit in a lot of those favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We do not need 6 wins in cash games, so that I do not believe we need to try for this. I like playing money games if I can lock in 25-35 points in a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That is my goal weekly. Let everybody else make the mistakes and only shoot for a score that can conquer 50 percent or more of the field.
GPP drama of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my opinion and I like Overeem among my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. I also believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts before him in the game that is spectacular. The sole shooter Oleinik has of winning on the feet would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Besides those two results, Overeem will smoke on the toes. In addition, I believe Overeem can work his way back into his feet if he’s taken down and the more Oleinik shoots takedowns the quicker he will gas outside. I like the -175 ITD line that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a finish in round 1 or 2. That should give us close to 100 DK points or even more, and I need that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change once they’re released. We receive Fiziev here for 800 less costly than Mustafaev and he is favored to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw out of this kid and that I agree with all the line movement. I really do think he has the win here, but it is the DK value that we want to be sure to find exposure to this weekend. I think he is an excellent play in cash games with the present price and I expect to be overweight on him in GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and when we could use a popular as among those”underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week for her $9.3k price label. I really do think she gets the win here as I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t see how she’ll pay off that salary without a finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I do not wish to rely on her obtaining knockdown points either. So, we’re only likely to be getting 0.5 points each significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a decision. If that is the case, we would need her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to get more than 10x value. I really don’t see that being true and I think she more likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision win. At her wages, that will not win anyone the large $25k. That is the prize I am shooting so that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 69-41 for +237.39un (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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